Now there is the next Deep Depression / Tropical Cyclone 03B in the Bay of Bengal, (to be) named ‘MAHASEN’. The problem or blessing some would say is the Tropical Cyclone seems to be weakening. The dry continental air moving in from the North seems to be playing havoc with the Tropical Cyclone 03 B Mahasen and the storm itself appears to have slowed down.
But as I had written earlier, the November and December storms in the BoB have a preference for Chennai and its environs. Both the JTWC and IMD agree on that point, that the TC 03B Mahasen is eyeing Chennai.
It can be a bother or blessing - the weakening, that is. If it intensifies - which seems unlikely - Chennai may be in for a lashing.
If it continues to weaken and actually dissipates before making landfall (as the predictions stand right now), Chennai might remain dry through, which would be a bother come summer - the eternally parched Chennai would once more face water shortage.
OTOH, if TC 03B Mahasen manages to retain enough central pressure and water vapour even while weakening, it might dump enough rain on the city to soak us through. That’s what happened a couple of years back when TC 06B ‘NISHA’ flooded the city in end November.
Unlike ‘NISHA’ which formed adjacent to Sri Lanka and moved North West, TC 03B ‘MAHASEN’ has formed well North of Chennai and is forecast to move in a South Westerly path for her tryst with Chennai.
Personally, I wish for a drenching.
Update (19 Nov 2012 - 2000 hrs: - the Tropical Storm 03B has dissipated).